Combatting Gun Violence in Philadelphia

by Samuel M Kim

In an effort to combat gun violence nationally, President Biden has recently announced his administration’s initial steps to approach the issue. This has once again revived the controversial discussion on what can be done to reduce gun violence without infringing on the American people’s right to bear arms.

In the US, more than half of gun homicides occur in 127 cities that only compose about a quarter of the country’s population, and since the start of the pandemic, gun violence has surged to record levels across the country.

Last year, Philadelphia set a new record of 2,245 recorded shooting victims, a 52% increase from the previous year. This was also the first time there were over 2000 recorded cases, a stark contrast from the previous 5 year average of 1,342 cases.

Who does gun violence affect the most in Philadelphia?

Data collected by the Philadelphia Police Department, which is publicly available on Open Data Philly, reveals many insights about the characteristics of local shooting victims. This dataset provides information dating back to 2015.

Census data reveals that there are slightly more women (53.6%) than men (46.4%) in Philadelphia. However, men are disproportionately victims of shootings compared to women. Out of a total of 9,477 cases, 8,630 were male victims. This translates to about 91% of all cases.

• The overwhelming majority (98%) of victims are in the age group: [36–45]
• [18–25] is the second highest age group with a total of 98 recorded cases (1%).

• According to Census data, Black/African Americans (B) make up about 42.1% of Philadelphia’s population. However, 83% of recorded shooting victims are Black/African American.

• 1,823 recorded cases were fatal.
• Of those fatal cases, about 84% were Black/African American.

Where does gun violence occur in Philadelphia?

The heat map above reveals that gun violence is concentrated in specific areas in the city: West, SouthWest, South, North, & NorthEast. NorthEast has the highest levels of recorded gun violence victims.

Creating a Logistic Regression Model to Predict those Who are Most Vulnerable to Fatal Shootings

The output below provides the results for a regression model that can help identify the most vulnerable to fatal shootings.

Dependent Variable: fatal (1 = Yes, 0 = No)

4 Independent Variables were included:

• race: B (Black), W (White), A (Asian), I (Native American), U (Pacific Islander)
• age: [0, 117]
• sex: M (Male), F (Female)
• inside: 1 (indoors), 0 (outdoors)

Variables Age, Sex, & Inside were found to be statistically significant.

The visualization below illustrates the average marginal effect of each factor. This relates changes in the independent variable to the probability of the event occurring.

Closing Statement

Gun violence requires data driven analysis and decision making in order to properly create tangible change. This articles provides insights into the who and where of gun violence in Philadelphia. A better understanding of these two factors will enable leaders to properly allocate resources to the most effective strategies and initiatives.